Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Was Jan 2011 a coup?

Many argue that June 30 is a military coup rather than a third wave of Jan 25 revolution. To settle on to this let's put some facts clear.

Facts about Jan 2011:

Mubarak was democratically elected: 
weather you like it or not he was, won elections held on 2005 with 88.6% apart from his nearest rival Ayman Nour who only got 7.3 %.

Elections were rigged: 
Yes we all now that. Many boycotted because they doubted the whole process, others criticized it and it was clear how it was non transparent with pro-Mubarak judges involved and MOI forces preventing people from reaching the polling stations.

Mubarak would've won in clean elections: 
Despite being a dictator, Mubarak had a fair, well more than fair popularity. It was a fake one, I mean it was clear to everyone were the country is heading politically, economically and socially.

But hey, let's face it, the man was widely respected among many classes. May be out of his military history being the air force commander at the October 1973 war, state media propaganda, the old Egyptians-idolizing-leaders syndrome (that was smashed pretty much by the Jan 25 revolution) or may be at least he was preferred over a fuzzy non-clear future if he left. Many reasons might apply, yet it's clear Mubarak would've won in a fair clean elections back then.

It was the army's decision, one way or another:
In his late interview with Daily News Egypt, the Military spokesman, Col. Ahmed Ali was asked if the army was "pressured by outside forces prior to taking the decision to oust President Morsi?", his answer was that the army takes decision based on "national security, the benefit and welfare of the Egyptian people" and then he added: "This is what happened in 2013 and 2011.". This spokesman's answer clearly give us a clue that the army was involved in the decision of ousting Mubarak and Morsi, evenly.

Facts about June 30 :

Morsi was elected:
In a fair clean elections with nearly 52% of the votes.

Using democracy, Morsi ruined democracy:
Gave himself ultimate powers, challenged the judiciary, threatened private media & dominated over state media. He also fulfilled nothing from his promises (most important the reestablishment of the constitution assembly) to the revolutionaries who chose him over Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak's last PM. The worst of all was the deep division occurred during Morsi's rule between Egyptians because of his dictatorial acts.

Again in streets, more than Jan 25:
In his interview with Rotana Khalijiya channel, Younis Makhyoun the leader of the ultraconservative Salafi Nour Party, the Muslim Brotherhood's closest ally until very soon, admits that the numbers went on streets on June 30 were far much bigger that on Jan 25. I quote him saying: "We were surprised by the people coming out, what I saw was much greater than in January 25. During Jan 25, people went out in: Alexandria, Cairo, Suez, Portsaid & Mahala. In June 30, even villages and stations were out to streets. Nothing like that ever happened since the 1919 revolution."

Military once again:
For sure this wasn't the best choice but with huge numbers on streets causing turmoil all over the country in addition to the Brotherhood's total denial and arrogance reading the situation, someone had to do something before it turns to be a civil war which we've already seen some signs of in several cities. The army did upon people's call.

Now questions arise:
If both, Mubarak and Morsi were elected leaders ousted by a popular military intervention, why would EU Chef Catherine Ashton ask for meeting Morsi? How about Mubarak? Why would France demand the release of Morsi while he's facing several charges by an Egyptian court? Why didn't France demand the release of Mubarak back in January 2011?

Western double standards should be questioned dealing with Mubarak and Morsi.

2 Coups or 1 Revolution?
If you're calling June 30 a coup, you should consistently call Jan 2011 a coup. As for me, it's just a third wave of a revolution that yielded a non-stable democratic process that might need long time to flourish.

1 comment:

G Dakan said...

I've been arguing this exact same point for weeks. The only difference is that I don't acknowledge the post Jan 25 as free and fair, especially in the 2nd round.

I still think that between Morsi and Shafiq the victor came down to who cheated more than the other, especially considering the small margin of difference. It was really a cheating contest not an election.

This is a great post, thank you.