Monday, November 18, 2013

Three reasons the current regime benefits from the Brotherhood

More than four months after Morsi’s ouster, the Muslim Brotherhood fails to adopt a strategy that reduces the rift happened between them and the revolutionaries, no to mention the public. In fact, the current reckless moves appear to be in favor of the current government’s rule. Here are three reasons why:

Violence gives mandate
Two weeks the Brotherhood members in Al-Azhar University stormed the administration office & reportedly fired bird shots inside the campus on the university security.
The head of university dean asked police to intervene after violence erupted and the Cabinet granted police forces the right to be present at university gates and furthermore to enter campuses upon universities heads request.

Aftermath of Muslim Brotherhood clashes in Al-Azhar University

Many fear that such violence would be followed by more harsh security intervention in universities that was banned by Administrative court in 2010 even with Minister of Higher Education denying the return of security to campuses in the old fashion.

With violence either committed or condoned by the Muslim Brotherhood or their Islamists allies since Morsi’s ouster in universities, neighborhoods and villages as well as the ongoing violence in Sinai, no one seems to be winning except the security apparatus, this time with a wide public support.

*Update: In a couple of days, we will witness the second anniversary of Mohamed Mahmoud clashes, and the Brotherhood shamelessly called for commemorating the clashes. Many fear the violence that might take place especially with presence of the Brotherhood.

Helpful defamation campaign?
One of the few things the Brotherhood conducts in a good way is PR campaigns. Across Europe & the U.S. the Brotherhood held many campaigns to market their case, delegitimize defame the current regime (sometimes immorally).

While this seems to be working, as major Human Rights and international organizations keeps pressuring the government (HRW: 1, 2, 3 - Amnesty), it also helps it to prune its repression instincts and prevents the old regime practices from a total comeback in order decrease criticism. In other words, helping the government to rule progressively and democratically.

In addition to that, the Brotherhood members disrupted Alaa Al-Aswany’s conference in Paris, a couple of days later the same happened with Tamarod’s conference in London University. Whether is it directives by the group to expats to prevent pro-government activists from explaining their views to the world or just MB supporters expressing their anger, it’s clearly not helping as Jack Lang, the president of The Arab World Institute in Paris which hosted Al-Aswany’s event expressed in his tweet:

[Yesterday at the Arab Wold Institute, the pro-Morsi militias attacked the writer Alaa Al Aswany. I condemn this intolerable infringement on the freedom of expression.]

Redefining allies
Two days after Sec. Kerry’s first visit to Cairo since the June 30 uprising, Voice of Russia reported the Russian Defense Minister & the Foreign Minister will be visiting Cairo the week after to meet their counterparts.

Russia offered Egypt major arms deal that includes helicopters, air defense systems and modernization of previously purchased Equipment. The visit was met with a red carpet welcome.

Russian FM Sergey Lavrov speaks to his Egyptian counterpart Nabil Fahmy

After the visit the Egyptian president had a phone call with the Russian president, in which the latter expressed support for Egypt and in return, Mansour invited him to visit Egypt.

While a total independence from U.S. may seem unlikely to happen in the near future, the Egyptian officials look adamant to restore relations with the old ally, Russia and the latter is warmly welcoming.

The Russian-Egyptian rapprochement comes after Egypt’s Foreign Minister described the relations between U.S. Egypt as in “Turmoil” after the U.S. administration suspended F-16 delivery to Egypt. President Barack Obama announced canceling Bright Start exercise amid Morsi’s ouster and the violence that followed.

With new ties with Russia, Gulf economic aid and deteriorating relations with Turkey and Qatar, Egypt is definitely redrawing its relations with partners.

Unless the Brotherhood rethinks its current strategy dealing with the regime, it will continue to lose support for the benefit of the government on contrary to what they plan.

*article was planned tp be published earlier

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